Metallprisnyheter januari 2025
2025 has been quiet so far. Everyone is awaiting the inauguration of Donald Trump and his first moves as president.
Macroeconomic developments
USA
The US economy is still strong. The labour market report from last Friday showed that job growth continues, keeping unemployment low.
At the same time, inflation has stopped falling. Due to these two factors, the market now expects just one interest rate cut in 2025 (0.25 %), and it is not expected to happen before summer.
The FED is keeping the interest rate up to reduce the risk of increased consumption, which would fuel inflation further.
On January 20, Donald Trump will officially take office. If he follows through on his promised tax cuts, this could cause interest rates and inflation to remain at the current high level.
Europe
The European economies are struggling. Germany and France are both facing political challenges and tight finances at the same time.
Right now, inflation is around 2.4% on an annual basis, and energy prices are the main factor pushing it upwards.
It is expected that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates 4-6 times by 2025 to help the European economies.
Aluminium and copper
Like the other financial markets, commodity markets are awaiting the new US president.
The USD has moved in the past few weeks and continues to strengthen against the EUR.
Donald Trump's promised tariff measures are the main reason for this, as they are expected to increase inflation in the US and reduce European growth. This is happening while the US economy is already looking significantly stronger than the European economies.
Stainless steel
Here, too, things are at a standstill. Everyone is uncertain about the market, and the alloy surcharge is fairly stable.
Sheets/plates
As expected, wholesalers are gradually beginning to stock up after the end of the fiscal year. But on the whole, activity and prices are stable.
Prices have been falling since last summer, but we expect a slight increase during this first quarter.
Bars
No news here either. Prices are stable and so are lead times at around 2-3 months on standard products.
